Raws li Rabobank qhov thib peb -lub quarter 2025 tsab ntawv ceeb toom, kev lag luam boxboard ntawv nyob rau hauv North America tau tshwm sim los ntawm kev tshaj tawm - kis thoob qhov txhia chaw thiab pib rov qab maj mam. Rabobank tus kws tshuaj ntsuam Li Xinnan tau taw qhia tias kev ua lag luam "destocking voj voog tau los txog qhov kawg", kos npe rau kev lag luam farewell rau qhov teeb meem ntawm kev xav tau tsis muaj zog thiab kev khiav hauj lwm qis li 80% hauv ob xyoos dhau los.
Li Xinnan tau hais tias thaum lub sijhawm COVID-19 kis thoob qhov txhia chaw, ob tus neeg siv khoom thiab cov tuam txhab tsim khoom tau khaws cov khoom ntim khoom hauv ntau, ua rau muaj kev cuam tshuam loj ntawm cov khoom muag. Txhawm rau txo qhov siab ntawm daim ntawv tshuav nyiaj li cas, cov lag luam tsis muaj kev xaiv tab sis ua kom txo qis cov khoom lag luam loj, uas tau ua rau poob qis ntawm tus nqi thiab kev khiav hauj lwm ntawm cov ntawv thawv ntawv. Tam sim no hais tias lub sijhawm nyuaj tshaj plaws tau dhau mus, kev lag luam yuav tsum rov qab los ntawm qhov nruab nrab ntawm kev loj hlob txhua xyoo ntawm 0.53%. Los ntawm 2027, kev tsim khoom txawm tias xav tias yuav loj hlob ntawm qhov kev loj hlob txhua xyoo ntawm 2.82%, ntxiv cov khoom muag rau cov chaw tsim khoom thiab cov txheej txheem.
Ceev faj! Lub tariff cua daj cua dub yog reshaping tus nqi saw
Txawm hais tias qhov kev thov tau pib rov qab los, North American boxboard kev lag luam tab tom ntsib cov kev cov nyom tshiab: cov cai lag luam thiab cov nqi se.
tariffs exacerbate inflation thiab tsav cov nqi
Daim ntawv tshaj tawm qhia tias nrog US GDP poob rau hauv qhov chaw tsis zoo nyob rau lub quarter thib peb ntawm 2025 thiab tsis daws teeb meem kev lag luam tsis sib haum, txoj cai tariff yuav cuam tshuam rau cov saw hlau ntawm cov khoom siv pulp thiab ntawv. Qhov cuam tshuam ntawm kev nce nqi ntawm kev lag luam nyob ntawm qhov chaw ntawm cov khoom siv fiber ntau, thiab cov nqi se ntawm xoom mus rau 15%. Piv txwv li, coniferous ntoo pulp imported los ntawm Canada yog raug zam los ntawm tariffs, tab sis dav -tawm ntoo pulp imported los ntawm Brazil yuav raug tariffs ntawm 10% los yog txawm 50%. Pulp thiab ntawv cov khoom lag luam tuaj ntawm Tebchaws Europe raug rau 15% tariff.
Li Xinnan tau taw qhia tias cov nqi se yuav ua rau tag nrho cov nqi thiab cov nqi nce ntxiv. Yog tias North American cov neeg tsim khoom tseem yuav tsum tau xa cov pulp los ntawm Brazil lossis Europe, lawv yuav tsum tau them tus nqi siab dua, uas yuav ua rau muaj kev cuam tshuam nyiaj txiag rau cov neeg tsim khoom hauv tsev vim tias tus nqi ntawm cov khoom siv raw thiab cov saw hlau tau nce siab.
Kev hloov pauv thoob ntiaj teb hauv xoom- suav ua si
Qhov cuam tshuam ntawm tariffs yog "zero-sum game". Nws yuav tsis cuam tshuam rau tag nrho cov ntim ntawm kev lag luam thoob ntiaj teb, tab sis nws yuav hloov pauv cov qauv kev lag luam, uas yog, cov khoom ntim tshwj xeeb ntawm txhua lub teb chaws yuav hloov. Txawm hais tias cov tuam txhab Asmeskas tuaj yeem tau txais luv luv - lub sij hawm peev rov qab los ntawm kev tiv thaiv tus nqi se, qhov kev puas tsuaj rau lub teb chaws kev lag luam kev sib raug zoo yuav ua rau kev lag luam xa tawm mus rau lub sijhawm.
Tus nqi nce uas tau tsav los ntawm tariffs yog yuam cov factories kom nruj tswj cov nqi thiab compress cov nyiaj tau los. Li Xinnan tau hais ntxiv tias tag nrho cov nqi ntawm cov khoom siv pulp hauv South America yog qhov qis tshaj plaws, yog $ 100 txog $ 150 qis ib tuj dua li lwm thaj chaw. Qhov no ua rau South America feem ntau yuav tau txais txiaj ntsig los ntawm kev lag luam tam sim no.
Cov neeg tsim khoom nyob sab Europe, ntxiv rau kev cuam tshuam nrog 15% tariff, kuj yuav tsum tau dais cov kev cai loj thiab kev ua raws li tus nqi coj los ntawm EU's Deforestation Regulation, ua rau kev ua lag luam ib puag ncig tsis hloov pauv. Daim ntawv tshaj tawm qhia tias cov chaw tsim khoom yuav tsum tswj hwm kev qhuab qhia muaj peev xwm, rov ntsuam xyuas lawv cov tswv yim kev yuav khoom kom txo tau kev lag luam- cuam tshuam txog kev pheej hmoo, thiab ntxiv dag zog rau cov khoom siv hauv tsev los daws cov teeb meem yav tom ntej.
Kev lag luam tus kheej-kev cawm: Kev txiav cov peev txheej tsim tawm los txhim kho lub zog rau yav tom ntej
ntsib qhov nyuaj macroeconomic backdrop, American boxboard producers tsis tau cia li zaum idly los ntawm. Txhawm rau khaws cov khoom lag luam raws li kev xav tau ntawm kev lag luam, kev lag luam ruaj khov ntawm kev lag luam los ntawm "kev qhuab qhia muaj peev xwm".
Daim ntawv tshaj tawm qhia tias lub Hoobkas tab tom ntsuas kev tsim khoom raws li kev lag luam tam sim no. Piv txwv li:
Thaum Lub Rau Hli, Graves kaw nws West Coast Paper mill hauv Los Angeles raws li ib feem ntawm "kev ntsuas kev ua kom zoo", ua rau poob ntawm 50,000 tons ntawm coated recycled cardboard thiab 22,000 tons ntawm uncoated recycled cardboard muaj peev xwm. Lub tuam txhab kuj tau kaw ob lub chaw tsim khoom hauv Georgia thiab Massachusetts thaum ntxov 2025.
Thaum lub Tsib Hlis, Smurphy Vislock tau tshaj tawm qhov kev kaw ntawm plaub lub chaw ua haujlwm raws li ib feem ntawm nws txoj haujlwm "txhim kho thiab kev faib tawm", txo qis dua 500,000 tons ntawm lub thawv ntawv thiab coated recycled paperboard muaj peev xwm.
Daim ntawv thoob ntiaj teb tau tshaj tawm thaum Lub Yim Hli tias nws yuav ncua kev ua haujlwm ntawm nws lub thawv ntawv mills thiab ntoo thiab sawmill nroj tsuag hauv Savannah thiab Reisboro, Georgia, uas ua rau txo qis ntawm 430,000 tons hauv lub tuam txhab kev tsim khoom.
Li Xinnan tau hais tias kev ntsuas los ntawm cov chaw tsim khoom no kom ncua kev ua haujlwm lossis txawm tias kaw mus tas li yog cov haujlwm uas kev lag luam xav tias yuav coj mus rau hauv ib puag ncig tsis muaj zog thiab tseem tsim lub hauv paus rau kev txhim kho lub zog ntawm tus nqi yav tom ntej.
Qhov kev rov qab los tau ua rau tus nqi nce ntxiv thiab yav tom ntej tau cog lus tseg
Daim ntawv tshaj tawm hais tias txawm hais tias muaj kev sib tw ntau dua kev lag luam, cov haujlwm tshaj tawm yuav los tom ntej thaum lub caij so haujlwm hauv Asmeskas yuav tsum thawb tus nqi ntawm lub thawv ntawv. Txawm hais tias muaj kev poob qis hauv cov neeg siv khoom siv, e- kev muag khoom lag luam yuav tsum rov qab los, thiab los ntawm nruab nrab - mus rau - lig 2026, lub peev xwm ua haujlwm yuav nce los ntawm qhov tam sim no nyob ib ncig ntawm 80% mus rau thaj tsam 92%.
Daim ntawv tshaj tawm kwv yees tias tus nqi ntawm cov ntawv thawv ntawv yuav nyob ruaj khov nyob rau hauv thawj ib nrab ntawm 2026, ua tsaug rau "kev xav tau ruaj khov thiab cov khoom siv nruj heev- kev tswj xyuas sab". Raws li kev nce nqi txo qis thiab kev lag luam tensions yooj yim, kev thov hauv cov ntim khoom thiab kev lag luam yuav tsum tau rov qab qeeb tab sis tsis tu ncua. Txawm li cas los xij, tsab ntawv tshaj tawm kuj tau taw qhia tias cov neeg tsim khoom nrog cov nqi ruaj khov dua tuaj yeem ntsib kev nyuaj siab hauv lub sijhawm luv.
Hauv kev xaus, lub thawv ntawv ntawv kev lag luam hauv North America tab tom ua lub voj voog ntawm "kev hloov ua ntej thiab tom qab ntawd rov qab". Kev nthuav dav yooj yim thiab tus nqi sib tw yog qhov kawg ntawm txoj kev. Tsuas yog los ntawm kev nce toj mus rau qhov siab ntawm thev naus laus zis, kev tsim thiab kev pabcuam tuaj yeem taug kev los ntawm cov voj voog thiab ua tiav cov txiaj ntsig zoo los ntawm "kev khawb kub".
