Xyoo dhau los los yog li ntawd, kev lag luam rau cov khoom siv corrugated cardboard thawv (OCC) thiab cov ntawv sib xyaw tau dhau los ua "kev puas tsuaj". Tus nqi ntawm ob qho khoom tseem ceeb no rau cov ntawv siv dua tshiab tau raug kev poob qis.
Nqe halved: Khib nyiab ua lag luam hits "Tsev tsaus ntuj"
Cov ntaub ntawv qhia tau hais tias txij li lub Kaum Ib Hlis, tus nqi nruab nrab ntawm OCC hauv Tebchaws Meskas yog $ 44 ib tuj, qhov poob qis ntawm ze li ntawm 41% los ntawm $ 74 thaum lub Kaum Ib Hlis 2024. Qhov kev poob ntawm cov ntawv sib xyaw yog qhov hnyav dua. Nws tus nqi tsuas yog $ 20 ib tuj nyob rau lub Kaum Ib Hlis xyoo no, deb tshaj li theem ntawm tib lub sijhawm xyoo tas los, nrog kev poob ntau dua ib nrab.
Qhov kev hloov pauv ntse no tsis yog thawj zaug tshwm sim. Xyoo tas los, OCC tus nqi hloov pauv ntawm $ 101 thiab $ 106 ib tuj rau ntev li xya lub hlis. Txawm li cas los xij, txij li xyoo 2022, nws tus nqi tsis tau tawg los ntawm $ 100 ib tuj ib zaug ntxiv.
Moore tau hais nyob rau ntawm Lub Rooj Sib Tham Ntawv thiab Yas Rov Ua Dua uas muaj nyob hauv Chicago thaum nruab nrab -Lub Kaum Hli: "Tus nqi ntawm OCC hloov pauv sai heev thiab nws yog ib qho ntawm cov khoom lag luam tsis hloov pauv ntau." Tus nqi sib txawv nyob rau lub lim tiam no tseem muaj kev txhawj xeeb ntau dua. "Qhov kev txhawj xeeb uas nws tau hais feem ntau yog los ntawm txoj cai tshiab uas tau siv los ntawm Tuam Tshoj thaum Lub Kaum Hli 10th, uas xav kom cov neeg tuaj yeem siv cov ntaub so ntswg kom meej meej seb lawv txoj kev tsim khoom qhuav lossis ntub dej.
"Kev cuam tshuam ntawm kev sib kis": North America lub peev xwm dhau los ua rau nthwv dej ntawm lub Hoobkas kaw
Boxboard ntawv, raws li qhov loj tshaj plaws hauv kev lag luam siv fiber ntau thiab cov neeg siv khoom loj ntawm OCC, qhov kev ua lag luam qeeb qeeb yog qhov laj thawj tseem ceeb rau kev poob qis hauv cov ntawv pov tseg. Raws li Earhart cov ntaub ntawv, Asia tuav kwv yees li 65% ntawm lub ntiaj teb boxboard muaj peev xwm, ua raws li cov teb chaws Europe thiab North America.
Nws yog ib qho tsim nyog sau cia tias North America yog nyob ntawm OCC ntau dua rau kev siv cov khoom siv raw, thaum lwm lub ntiaj teb siv ntau ntau ntawm cov ntawv pov tseg. Earhart tau taw qhia tias: "Txawm hais tias feem ntau ntawm lwm qhov hauv ntiaj teb tuaj yeem lees txais kev siv cov ntaub ntawv uas tsis yog OCC, qhov no tsis yog nyob rau hauv North America tag nrho."
Qhov cuam tshuam ntawm COVID-19 kis thoob qhov txhia chaw tau tshwm sim hauv 2022. Vim muaj kev cuam tshuam los ntawm kev sib kis, qhov muaj peev xwm dhau ntawm cov ntawv thawv ntawv hauv Tebchaws Meskas - uas yog, cov ntawv zeb tsis tau xaj - tau txog li 9 lab tons. Earhart tau hais tias qhov no yog cov ntaub ntawv siab tshaj plaws hauv 25 xyoo. Hauv lwm lo lus, los ntawm 2023, ib qho ntawm txhua plaub lub thawv ntawv thawv ntawv yuav tsis muaj xaj, nws hais.
Overcapacity ncaj qha ua rau muaj kev sib tw hnyav "destocking" hauv kev ua lag luam, ua rau muaj kev kaw ntau ntawm cov ntawv zeb. Txij thaum ntawd los, cov khoom ntawm lub thawv ntawv hauv kev ua lag luam tau raug txo los ntawm 4.6 lab tons los ntawm kev lag luam kaw cov qub, tsis muaj peev xwm thiab feem ntau muaj peev xwm tshiab. Earhart tau hais ntxiv tias piv nrog cov ntawv siv rov ua dua tshiab, cov nqi kho ntawm cov ntawv tshiab hauv North America yog qhov xav tsis thoob, thiab kev ua haujlwm ntawm tag nrho kev lag luam tau cuam tshuam zoo heev. Yog li ntawd, cov tuam txhab lag luam no feem ntau txhim kho lawv txoj kev lag luam los ntawm kev kaw cov peev txheej tshiab.
Txawm hais tias qee lub peev xwm tsim tau raug kaw, kev ua lag luam tseem tsis tau raug tshem tawm tag nrho. Earhart tau taw qhia tias: "Tam sim no, kev lag luam tseem muaj peev xwm tsim tau ntawm 4 txog 5 lab tons. Peb ntseeg tias thaum muaj kev lag luam poob qis, lub peev xwm no feem ntau tsis muaj txiaj ntsig." Nws tau kwv yees tias yog tias qhov sib txawv ntawm cov thawv ntawv xav tau txuas ntxiv lub zog ntawm lub xyoo dhau los, nws yuav tsis xav tsis thoob tias ntau lub chaw tsim khoom yuav raug kaw, thiab nws xav tias ib lossis ob lub chaw tsim khoom yuav raug kaw.
Kev ua lag luam variables: Tuam Tshoj tus "super peev" thiab txoj cai hloov
Hauv qhov sib txawv ntawm North America "muaj peev xwm txo qis", Tuam Tshoj tau ntxiv 25 lab tons ntawm cov thawv ntim khoom muaj peev xwm nyob rau lub sijhawm thaum nws cov nqi khiav haujlwm tseem qis dua 70%. Earhart tau hais ncaj nraim, "Qhov kev ua haujlwm zoo li no yuav ua rau cov tuam txhab North American feem ntau ua lag luam poob."
Txawm tias xav tsis thoob, Tuam Tshoj muaj ntau qhov chaw ua haujlwm lossis tsis ua haujlwm. Yog tias cov ntawv ntim khoom tsis muaj peev xwm ntawm cov ntawv no tau muab piv rau ib lub tebchaws, lawv qhov ntsuas yuav dhau ntawm tag nrho cov thawv ntawv cov ntawv muaj peev xwm ntawm txhua daim ntawv- ua lub tebchaws tshwj tsis yog Tebchaws Meskas. Cov ntaub ntawv qhia tau hais tias Tuam Tshoj lub peev xwm tsis ua haujlwm yog kwv yees li 31 lab tons, qis dua me ntsis ntawm tag nrho cov thawv ntim khoom muaj peev xwm ntawm 36 lab tons hauv Tebchaws Meskas, thiab deb tshaj li ntawm lub tebchaws thib ob thiab thib peb loj tshaj plaws ntawm cov khoom muaj peev xwm (Is Nrias teb thiab Lub Tebchaws Yelemees, kwv yees li 11 txog 12 lab tons).
Ntxiv nrog rau nws lub peev xwm tsim khoom loj, Tuam Tshoj txoj cai hloov pauv tseem muaj kev cuam tshuam loj heev rau lub ntiaj teb cov ntawv pov tseg. "Kev Ua Haujlwm National Gate Sword tau nres feem ntau OCC ntshuam hauv 2019. Lub sijhawm no, Tuam Tshoj kuj tau nqis peev tseem ceeb hauv kev tsim cov ntoo fiber ntau," said Earhart. Tuam Tshoj tsis yog tsuas yog xa cov ntoo chips los ntawm Australia, New Zealand, Thaib teb, Nyab Laj thiab Malaysia, tab sis tseem tab tom tsim nws cov peev txheej hav zoov. Qhov no yog ib feem ntawm "Made in China 2025" txoj kev npaj, uas yog lub hom phiaj los nqis peev ntau hauv kev tsim nws cov hav zoov kom tau raws li qhov xav tau ntawm cov khoom siv hauv tsev.
Qhov ntau dua nkauj xwb fibers Tuam Tshoj noj, qhov tsawg nws yuav xav tau fibers los ntawm lub ntiaj teb no, txawm nws yog recycled pulp los yog coj mus muag pulp. Vim yog cov xwm txheej no, kev siv hauv tsev hauv Suav teb tau pom tias "kev loj hlob tawg". Lub caij no, kev txwv tsis pub nkag mus rau cov khoom siv rov ua dua tshiab los ntawm lub teb chaws thaum lub Kaum Hlis thaum ntxov tau ua rau muaj kev txhawj xeeb ntawm North American recyclers. Ryan Fox, tus kws tshuaj xyuas kev lag luam corrugated ntawm Bloomberg, tau hais tias, "Kev thov rau cov ntawv pov tseg tau poob qis, thiab kev lag luam xa tawm tau txhawb nqa qhov kev thov no." Peb yuav tsum ua li cas tam sim no?"
Kev tsis sib haum xeeb ntawm kev muab khoom thiab kev xav tau: Tus nqi hloov pauv yog qhov yuav dhau los ua tus qauv
Peb lub ntsiab tsav tsheb uas txiav txim siab qhov xav tau ntawm cov thawv yog e- kev lag luam, kev tsim khoom, thiab kev lag luam zaub mov thiab dej haus. Tom qab e- kev lag luam boom hauv 2020 thiab 2021, kev ua lag luam tam sim no nyob rau hauv "tshiab ib txwm", nrog rau tag nrho cov kev thov rau cartons txawm qis dua li xyoo 2018.
Harman tau taw qhia tias tam sim no, kev ua haujlwm zoo ntawm ntau yam kev lag luam xws li ntawv thawv ntawv, ntawv ntawv, thiab tsis yog{0}} cov ntaub so ntswg hauv tsev tsis txaus siab. Nws hais tias, "Thaum tus nqi khiav hauj lwm qis dua 90% (Kuv xav tias peb cov kev khiav hauj lwm tam sim no nyob nruab nrab ntawm 87% thiab 88%), nws txhais tau tias tsis muaj kev thov." Qhov no tsis yog ib qho teeb meem hauv Tebchaws Meskas nkaus xwb, tab sis yog ib qho tshwm sim uas ua rau muaj kev nyuaj rau cov nqi.
Qhov kev hloov pauv ntawm kev thov ncaj qha cuam tshuam rau tus nqi ntawm OCC. Earhart piav qhia tias, feem ntau, qhov kev thov nce ntxiv yuav ua rau tus nqi ntawm OCC, thiab rov ua dua. Tab sis qhov nthuav tiag tiag ntawm cov khoom tshwj xeeb no nyob rau hauv qhov tseeb tias kwv yees li 30% mus rau 40% ntawm lub sijhawm, tus nqi sib txawv kiag li qhov kev cia siab. Qhov no yog vim tus nqi ntawm OCC tau cuam tshuam los ntawm cov khoom siv los ntawm cov neeg muag khoom.
Nws tau taw qhia tias muaj cov qauv tsim tshwj xeeb hauv kev lag luam cov khoom siv rov ua dua tshiab: cov khoom siv yog txiav txim siab los ntawm nws tus kheej xav tau, tab sis muaj lub sijhawm lag luam. OCC koj sau hnub no yog sib npaug rau qhov kev thov rau corrugated cardboard peb mus rau tsib lub hlis dhau los. Vim li no, cov yam ntxwv ntawm qhov kev lag luam no txiav txim siab tias nws cov khoom siv thiab kev xav tau ib txwm nyob hauv lub xeev tsis sib npaug - "yuav luag tas mus li" - thiab qhov no yog qhov ua rau muaj kev hloov pauv ntawm tus nqi. Qhov kev thov rau cov ntawv thawv ntawv thiab cov ntim ntim tsis tuaj yeem ua tiav tag nrho vim kev sib raug zoo lag luam.
Earhart xaus lus tias corrugated cardboard yog ib qho ntawm ob peb yam khoom tsis tshua muaj uas tuaj yeem tsim tawm ntawm nws tus kheej, tab sis nws tus nqi tsis siab thiab nws tsis tuaj yeem txo tus nqi hloov pauv tau zoo los ntawm cov tswv yim cov khoom lag luam xws li hlau, tsis tshua muaj ntiaj teb thiab lwm yam khoom muag. Muab cov yam ntxwv zoo li no, nws ntseeg tias tshwj tsis yog cov cuab yeej nyiaj txiag pom tau los daws qhov teeb meem no, kev lag luam yuav tsum "cia siab tias tus nqi hloov pauv yuav nyob mus ib txhis".
