Vim muaj kev cuam tshuam txuas ntxiv ntawm kev sib kis, lub thoob ntiaj teb lub thawv xav tau thiab tus nqi system tau hloov pauv hloov pauv. Raws li kev lag luam thoob ntiaj teb thiab cov kev cai cuam tshuam txuas ntxiv mus, cov kws tshaj lij cov khoom lag luam thiab cov kws tshuaj ntsuam xyuas nyiaj txiag feem ntau ntseeg tias kev lag luam thawv tseem yuav muaj kev hloov pauv ntau dua yav tom ntej.
Raws li cov ntaub ntawv tshaj tawm los ntawm Fastmarkets RISI rau hnub Friday, North American box board tus nqi tau nyob ruaj khov txij li lub Yim Hli. Tom qab ob peb tus nqi nce hauv 2024, qhov kev sib tw no yog ua raws li kev cia siab ntawm kev lag luam. Raws li cov ntaub ntawv tshawb fawb tshiab los ntawm Bank of America Kev Tshawb Fawb Ntiaj Teb, cov neeg teb feem ntau ntseeg tias cov nqi thawv yuav tsis nce ntxiv mus txog thaum ntxov 2025.
"Kev thov kev lag luam txuas ntxiv txhim kho thiab cov khoom lag luam hauv lub Hoobkas tam sim no nyob rau ntawm 4-6 lub lim tiam, nce me ntsis los ntawm lub hli tas los," Michael Loxland, tus kws tshawb fawb laus thiab ntim khoom ntawm Truist, tau sau tseg hauv tsab ntawv tshaj tawm lub Cuaj Hlis 22. Nws hais ntxiv. tau hais tias qhov kev xav tau nruab nrab txhua hnub hauv lub quarter thib peb tau txhim kho los ntawm lub quarter thib ob. "Zuag qhia tag nrho, cov thawv tsim khoom muaj cov khoom sib npaug thiab kev thov los ntawm kev txiav cov khoom nruab nrab, thaum lub thawv lag luam tau maj mam ruaj khov tom qab ntau tus nqi nce."
Cascades, North America tus thib rau-loj tshaj plaws tsim ntawm lub thawv board, tshaj tawm tias nws yuav nce nws cov nqi pib lub Kaum Hlis 7. Ntawm lawv, tus nqi ntawm nyuj cardboard yog $40 ib ton, tus nqi ntawm corrugated ntawv yog $70 ib tuj, thiab tus nqi. ntawm cov nyuj dawb cardboard yog $40 ib tuj.
Cascades 'tus nqi nce yog nws qhov kev nce qib thib peb hauv 2024. Feem ntau, thaum ib lub tuam txhab yog thawj tus nce nqi, lwm tus neeg sib tw yuav ua raws. Txog tam sim no, txawm li cas los xij, nws tsis tshwm sim tias lwm cov ntawv loj loj tau ua raws li Cascades 'tus nqi nce.
Michael Loxland, tus kws ntsuam xyuas cov ntawv laus thiab ntim khoom ntawm Truist, tau hais tias nws tau kwv yees kwv yees li 80 feem pua ntawm cov neeg yuav khoom thiab cov muag khoom tau tshaj tawm tias cov nqi tseem tsis tau hloov pauv, thaum lwm tus tshaj tawm tias cov nqi tau poob qis. Loxland ntseeg tias Cascades qhov kev txiav txim siab yuav muaj qee yam cuam tshuam nrog kev kaw qhov kev cia siab ntawm nws cov nroj tsuag tshiab hauv Bear Island, Virginia. Tsis tas li ntawd, nws tau sau tseg hauv tsab ntawv ceeb toom rau lub Cuaj Hlis 16 tias kev yuav khoom loj ntawm cov xov xwm corrugated hauv khw los ntawm cov tuam txhab loj, nrog rau kev nce nqi zog thiab kev ua haujlwm, kuj tseem tuaj yeem ua rau Cascades tus nqi nce.
Loxland tseem tau sau tseg hauv tsab ntawv ceeb toom tias thaum cov nqi rau cov thawv qub qub tau poob qis tsis ntev los no, tus nqi ntawm cov khoom siv raw tseem siab (nce 245% txij lub Ib Hlis 2023), yog li Cascades qhov kev txiav txim siab nce nqi ua rau muaj kev nkag siab zoo.
Qhov no ua raws li ib puag ncig ntawm tus nqi nce los ntawm cov tuam txhab xws li Pratt Industries, Murphy-Westlock thiab Graphic Packaging International, uas ua rau $ 20 ib tuj nce hauv CRB tus nqi, thawj zaug nce txij lub Kaum Hli 2023. Thaum muaj cov lus ceeb toom ntawm kev xav tau ntawm kev lag luam tsis muaj zog. , cov nqi rau cov khoom bleached sulphates thiab uncoated recycled paperboards tau nyob ruaj khov.
Nyob rau tib lub sijhawm, RBC Capital Markets tau tshaj tawm tias Finnish daim ntawv loj heev Finlin Cardboard npaj yuav nce tus nqi ntawm nws FBB thiab cov ntawv ntim khoom noj los ntawm 85 euros / ton txij lub Kaum Ib Hlis 1. Cov nqi hloov pauv no ua rau muaj kev cuam tshuam ntawm lub ntiaj teb kev nyuaj thiab tsis hloov pauv. kev lag luam ib puag ncig, thiab kev lag luam tseem tsis paub meej txog thaum twg qhov kev thov yuav rov qab los.
Derek Marburg, tus thawj coj ntawm kev luam ntawv thiab ntim khoom rau North America ntawm Fastmarkets RISI, tau hais hauv lub Cuaj Hlis 18 webinar: "Kev lag luam thawv tau poob rau xyoo dhau los thiab ib nrab mus rau ob xyoos." Peb pom tias cov thawv xa khoom tau poob. mus rau 2016 lossis 2017 qib thiab tau stagnated nyob ntawd rau lub sijhawm ntev, uas yog qhov tseeb tawm ntawm cov qauv yav dhau los. "
Marburg tau sau tseg tias ib txwm muaj, cov thawv xa khoom hauv cov khw muag khoom thiab cov khoom lag luam tau txuas nrog rau tag nrho kev lag luam. Thaum muaj kev sib kis, txawm li cas los xij, qhov txuas ntawd tau tawg. Thaum pib muaj kev sib kis, kev txiav txim tau nce ntxiv vim muaj kev cuam tshuam ntawm cov saw hlau, thiab tom qab ntawd maj mam txo qis, nkag mus rau lub sijhawm ntev destocking. Thaum cov tuam txhab ntim khoom hais tias cov txheej txheem destocking ntau dhau lawm, kev nce nqi tseem tuav rov qab cov neeg siv khoom siv.
Cov kws tshuaj ntsuam tau taw qhia tias lub thoob ntiaj teb carton overcapacity yog kwv yees li 22 lab tons, ntawm cov cheeb tsam Esxias cheeb tsam muaj qhov loj tshaj plaws, mus txog 16 lab tons, tom qab ntawd Europe thiab Latin America, thiab tsis muaj peev xwm ntau tshaj nyob rau hauv North America. Txhawm rau tiv thaiv qhov cuam tshuam ntawm destocking, ntau lub tuam txhab ntim khoom hauv North America tau txo qis kev tsim khoom, lossis txawm tias kaw lossis idling qee lub peev xwm. Tam sim no, kev lag luam tus nqi khiav lag luam tseem qis dua nws qhov siab tshaj plaws tsis ntev los no. Fastmarkets RISI cia siab tias los ntawm 2026, tag nrho cov kev khiav hauj lwm tus nqi ntawm lub ntiaj teb no thawv kev lag luam yuav tsum rov qab mus rau theem ntawm 2010 thiab 2019.
Cov qauv no ua raws li kev ua haujlwm tsis ntev los no ntawm ntau qhov chaw tshiab hauv North America los ua cov khoom siv rov ua dua tshiab. Feem ntau ntawm cov cuab yeej tshiab no yuav ua haujlwm los ntawm 2023. Nrog rau kev zam ntawm Graphic Packaging International cov cog tshiab yuav los tom ntej hauv WACO, Texas, nws tsis zoo li yuav muaj lwm txoj haujlwm loj hauv kev ua lag luam nyob ze. "Cov neeg tsim khoom hauv North America zoo li tau tos-thiab-saib tus cwj pwm kom pom tias qhov kev thov tuaj yeem rov qab mus rau qib kev noj qab haus huv tiag tiag uas yuav tso cai rau cov chaw lag luam khiav ntawm tus nqi siab dua." Tsuas yog tom qab ntawd kev ua lag luam yuav npaj txhij rau lub peev xwm tshiab tom ntej. "" Marburg hais.
Bank of America qhov kev tshawb fawb 40th ntawm kev lag luam thawv, tshaj tawm rau lub Cuaj Hlis 12, pom cov txiaj ntsig zoo sib xws. Kev loj hlob rau ob peb lub hlis tom ntej yuav tsum yog 2 feem pua, nqis me ntsis los ntawm 3.4 feem pua yuav kwv yees nyob rau lub Rau Hli, raws li kev tshawb fawb ntawm 25 cov ntaub ntawv kev lag luam. Cov neeg teb xov tooj kuj tau hais txog kev nce ntxiv hauv kev thauj mus los thiab cov nqi ua haujlwm vim muaj kev cuam tshuam tsis zoo rau lawv txoj kev lag luam.
Tus kws tshawb fawb Bank of America George Stafos tau sau tias: "Thaum cov neeg siv khoom sib tw ntau dua rau kev lag luam, cov thawv ntim khoom tseem tsis khoom mus rau lub caij nplooj zeeg. Thaum cov nqi tau nce xyoo tas los, cov neeg siv khoom yuav tau tig mus rau lwm tus neeg muag khoom kom txo cov nqi, tab sis qhov no muaj. eased tam sim no qhov kev thov muaj zog. "
Saib tom ntej, cov tuam txhab lag luam tseem tab tom saib ze rau qhov cuam tshuam ntawm cov ntawv qub corrugated (OCC) kev ua lag luam. Ib lub rooj sab laj kev lag luam tsis ntev los no tau sau tseg tias qhov kev thov ntau ntxiv rau cov ntawv pov tseg hauv cov chaw tsim khoom thiab kev kho dua tshiab ntawm cov ntaub ntawv pov tseg. Txoj cai tswjfwm kev rhuav tshem EU yav tom ntej yuav ua rau muaj kev txwv nruj dua ntawm kev siv cov nkauj xwb fiber ntau, ntxiv dag zog rau qhov kev thov rau cov khoom siv fiber ntau.
Alejandro Mata, RISI tus thawj coj ntawm Ntim thiab luam ntawv rau Tebchaws Europe tau hais tias "Thaum nws tsuas yog tsim cov khoom siv fiber ntau, cov khoom siv fiber ntau rov ua dua kuj raug cuam tshuam," "Peb tuaj yeem pom tau tias EU ntsuas kev txo qis qis tuaj yeem ua rau muaj kev nce ntxiv ntawm cov khoom siv fiber ntau siv los tsim cov ntawv thiab cov ntawv hauv Tebchaws Europe hauv xyoo tom ntej."
Marburg tau taw qhia tias North America ob qho tib si xa tawm nyuj cov duab los qhia rau Tebchaws Europe thiab xa tawm qee cov bleached thiab coated nyuj cardboard los ntawm Tebchaws Europe, yog li kev ua lag luam rau cov pawg no tuaj yeem cuam tshuam, uas cuam tshuam rau tus nqi ntawm cov ntawv qub (OCC).
Saib ua ntej, Marburg tau hais tias nws yuav ua tib zoo saib ntawm kev txhim kho hauv cov khoom noj khoom haus thiab kev tsim khoom hauv tsev, tsis yog cov neeg siv khoom siv ntawm cov khw muag khoom kawg thiab cov khoom ntim hauv e-lag luam. "Peb puas yuav siv cov ntawv corrugated ntau npaum li yav dhau los rau cov khoom noj thiab cov khoom lag luam? Yog tias koj saib ntawm cov pob ntawv nthuav dav nyob ib puag ncig peb, koj yuav pom tias muaj ntau thiab ntau lub hnab ntawv xim av thiab hnab ntawv yas, thiab tsawg dua thiab tsawg dua cartons."
